Predictions by Telecom Pragmatics
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—"Even to this day, it appears that AT&T is only doing what it needs to minimally in terms of spending money on upgrades and expansion." 9/2/09
•According to an article in Seeking Alpha, "AT&T is [not] disputing the accuracy" of an ad from Verizon "about the spottiness of [AT&T's] 3G service outside of major metropolitan areas." 11/4/09
—"Any RBOC would probably be the last recipient of [broadband stimulus] funds -- if any happens to be left." Independent Telco Tactics Monthly, "Government Stimulus Impact on Telecom Infrastructure at IOCs". 7/09
•Qwest annouces "...[U]pon evaluation of the funding opportunity and the various requirements for participation, we were unable to make the business case for filing an application for more rural opportunities." 8/12/09
—Some service providers will want to go with a 10 x 10G approach to get to 100G. 6/23/09
•Alcatel-Lucent announces 10-port 10 Gigabit Ethernet line cards. 7/16/09
—"Infinera’s credibility is at its most threatened state since starting up...." 4/24/09
•Infinera announces CEO stepping down 7/21/09
—A more conservative and localized strategy likely at Clearwire. 4/13/09
•Clearwire announces launch in smaller markets 8/3/09
—"On Paper, Huawei Could Have the Upper Hand in Getting Clearwire’s Business." 3/30/09
•Clearwire announces Huawei as WiMAX supplier. 8/11/09
—We said FairPoint's network goals for June '09 were reasonable. 3/30/09
•Acknowledgement starts of huge achievement and that the network was approaching normalcy. 4/26/09
—"Verizon’s world is [now] destined to become much flatter [with wireline and wireless convergence]." 3/16/09
•Dow Jones reports: "Verizon Shows Off FiOS TV-Cellphone Integration 8/19/09
—Optimistic about FairPoint despite financial difficulties 3/12/09
•Report that it can repay debt 3/20/09
—On the importance of AT&T making greater progress on its video wireline business to complement future 4G development. 2/18/09
•AT&T executive is quoted as follows in Telephony Online: "I think you're going to see AT&T -- particularly because of the TV assets that we have -- become very focused on breaking through the roadblocks that are keeping customers from being able to interact with their TVs in significantly different ways than they do today. We're just in the beginning stages, but I would suggest the TV is the next big thing to go wireless." 3/3/09
—"Despite objections from some analysts in the past that video programming would never be used in a big way on wireless, the service remains the only justifiable reason for going to 4G in general." 2/17/09
•According to ComputerWorld, "Streaming video and live videoconferencing over wireless LTE were among the demonstrations shown in a private room at CES to reporters and other visitors" by Verizon Wireless." 1/7/10
—Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent and Nokia-Siemens will be selected as vendors
for Verizon's LTE network. Ericsson will get bulk of contract. 2/16/09
•Announcement
by Verizon of suppliers; Ericsson states it received 50 percent (in
effect over a majority) -- both announcements on 2/18/09
—Doubts are raised about the viability of Infinera's PIC technology 2/4/09
•Telephony Online's headline: "Infinera's new metro edge gear goes PIC-less" 10/19/09
—Despite economic conditions, Verizon's FiOS will remain more or less on track in 2009 1/8/09
•The Wall Street Journal reports on 1/28/09 that Verizon has no plans to slow down FiOS in '09
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—AT&T desperately needs to significantly increase its 3G wireless spending 11/05/08
•RBOC announces large investment in this area 3/10/09
—Damaged brand name indicating hopeless situation for Nortel 9/29/08
•Report of Nortel filing for bankruptcy 1/14/09
—As with FiOS, Verizon wishes to surprise the world with a very aggressive schedule for LTE deployment 9/9/08
•Unstrung reports that Verizon plans to have two LTE markets up by the end of 2009. 2/18/09
—We begin to raise questions about Ciena's World Wide Packets and AT&T's actual interest (the carrier supposedly pushing for the acquisition) 8/12/08
•Announcement of Ciena writing off debt on WWP 4/17/09
—M&A activity for Embarq expected 7/1/08
•Merger with CenturyTel announced 10/27/08
—"The most likely scenario is that another player purchases [Aktino]." 5/28/08
•Positron acquires Aktino. 5/11/09
—Factors could change to potentially make Level 3's wholesale business instrumental 4/28/08
•Announcement of expansion agreement with Telefonica as being "the largest single capacity commitment in Level 3 history." 3/26/09
—Discussed impact of threat of over-the-top services such as Hulu to MSOs. 4/28/08
•On Time Warner Cable Q4 2008 earnings call, free video content on the web hightlighted as competitive force. 2/4/09
—We said, "Later on, there is the possibility of curtailing the [BT] 21st Century Network - or at least a modification in both size and scope." 4/14/08
•LightReading Europe reports "BT…says it has slowed down its…21CN process and has withdrawn an initial converged service." 5/1/09
—The lack of a business case for 3G femtocells 3/25/08
•"Ericsson AB remains unconvinced that it needs to develop a 3G femtocell" 5/8/09
—On the good possibility that the Sprint brand could be tarnished 3/24/08
•Sprint CEO tells Fierce Wireless that it will keep Sprint, Boost, and Virgin brands separate. 7/29/09
—"Sprint's iDEN has Value" 3/12/08
•On PhoneNews.com, "Sprint Preparing to Discontinue Qchat in Favor of iDEN…" 11/29/09
—We write that "so many iDEN customers have been lost that capacity is no longer an issue and there is plenty of room for potential growth." 3/12/08
•Sprint admits in the Wall Street Journal to "The network has considerable capacity today....The exodus of Nextel customers over the past few years left a lot of room on the network." 4/16/09
—High probability of Sprint eventually moving to LTE 3/12/08
•Reports of Sprint looking at LTE technology 3/10/09
—Tellabs getting new CEO in-house 1/28/08
•Promotion revealed 2/26/08
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—"...Indications that broader job slashing might be coming soon at AlcaLu" 11/14/07
•According to the AFP: "Alcatel-Lucent will cut its 26,000 strong European workforce by a sixth this year and next...a union source said...." 10/21/09
—We wrote, "The market for passenger Internet access on airlines is advancing, but at a very slow pace." 8/21/07
•Wall Street Journal article entitled, "Internet Service in the Air is Slow to Take Off" 5/7/09
—"Indications point to Siemens winning in the bidding process" in Verizon IMS RFP 8/6/07
•Press release that Nokia-Siemens was selected as one of two principal IMS vendors by the RBOC 2/18/09
—Cablevision is protecting its turf against Verizon 7/16/07
•Telephony Online reports, "Verizon's FiOS effect on Cablevision still invisible." 2/26/09
—We talk about MSOs quietly using FTTH 7/16/07
•Light Reading reports that Cox has deployed the technology 6/20/08
—Sprint will use FiberTower for backhaul 6/25/07
•Announcement on 8/1/07
—Infinera needs to develop a pure 40G chip. 6/18/07
•Light Reading reports indications that lack of a native 40G solution is a key reason why it lost Level 3's business. 7/20/09
—Embarq likely to use TA 5000 6/8/07
•Press release issued on 6/16/08
—Major change in company direction from top at AT&T cannot be made overnight without an all-out war. 6/7/07
—Telecom Pragmatics reports that war has occurred even much later. 2/11/09
•AT&T CEO seeks outside pressure to change corporate culture in his favor with interview in Wall Street Journal. 4/15/09
—A smaller version of a ROADM from Tellabs 5/7/07
•Introduced on 6/19/07
—Overstated 40G usage 4/24/07
•Light Reading reports on 10/6/08 that carriers are looking to leapfrog 40G
—Not all of the boroughs of New York City will be priorities for Verizon on FiOS. 3/30/07
•Verizon spokesman quoted in Daily News that "FiOS...won't cover all the boroughs until 2014." 2/20/09
—Time is ripe for Verizon to invade AT&T territory with broadband 3/23/07
•Verizon announces application for an expanded state-issued video franchise in North Texas 10/10/07
—Inevitability of Verizon purchasing Alltel 3/1/07
•Buyout announced 6/5/08
—Embarq anxious to get Ciena’s CN 4200 in its network 2/16/07
•Contract announcement on 4/28/08
—We write that Nortel has needed "substance, not style." 2/16/07
•A former company president admits "Nortel put innovation on the shelf, focusing more on managing its image as a publicly traded company." 4/28/09
—All of Verizon's West Virginia landlines are up for sale 1/17/07
•Announcement that Frontier bought all of those assets 5/13/09
—Skepticism of PBT at BT 1/17/07
•Light Reading reports on 5/29/08 that it is targeting MPLS
—"Cyan’s first step will be to stay in more or less in stealth mode for an indefinite period of time....The device will likely turn out to be a modified, improved box of a solution that is widely deployed in networks today....Another big part of the expected strategy will be to not announce the device until...it has shipped a large number of systems to various customers (some will be individually mentioned) for actual deployment." 1/9/07
•"Cyan today formally introduced the company and its Z-SeriesTM of multi-layer optical transport platforms and CyMS multi-layer management system with over 20 carrier customers." Cyan mentions the name of three customers....Cyan is offering a better mouse trap "combin[ing] packet, TDM and optical add / drop multiplexer, cross-connect and transport functionality." 9/15/09
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—Strong likelihood of Ericsson "becoming a U.S. Powerhouse Beyond Access Equipment" 11/30/06
•LightReading reports that "the US is Ericsson's new stronghold." 8/10/09
—Nortel needs to significantly downsize 11/14/06
•Big divestiture statement by Nortel 9/17/08
—AT&T's movement away from FTTN to FTTP 11/1/06
•Reorganization resulted in high-level wireless executive -- with FTTH experience – heading the wireline consumer business as well 10/1/08
—Independent telco consolidation inevitable 10/25/06
•Windstream announces acquisition of D&E Communications 5/11/09
•Embarq and CenturyTel announce first major merger 10/27/08
—Cingular's (now AT&T) $150 million contract win with US military clearly indicates that the carrier has caught up to Sprint on push-to-talk (PTT) and that the federal government as a whole did not want to be dependent on Sprint's ability to make the necessary transition on PTT to the CDMA network in a timely manner. 10/12/06
•GSA announced that Sprint was the only major US service provider to be left out of $20 billion contract. 3/29/07
—Telecom Pragmatics tells board members of the Fiber to the Home
Council that Verizon intends to sell off lines in territory outside of
the Boston to Richmond corridor 6/15/06
•Announcement of Verizon selling Northern New England assets to FairPoint 1/16/07
—Fiber to the business has always been Verizon's primary goal 3/18/06
•In 2008, Verizon started acknowledging in press releases that businesses are a part of the 18 million entities passed by FiOS.
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—Telecom Pragmatics points to shift of greater proportion of broadband cross-connects from wideband cross-connects in moderating a webinar 9/16/03
•Alcatel introduces new cross-connect release with broadband capability at triple the capacity 11/27/06
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